Obesity rates among U.S. adults and youth have risen sharply in recent years, with 40% of adults and 20% of youth meeting the criteria for obesity in 2023, according to new research published in the American Heart Association’s flagship journal Circulation. The study, led by Dr. Anum Minhas from the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, analyzed data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) spanning 1999 to 2023 and found that the prevalence of obesity among adults increased from 30% to 41%, severe obesity rose from 5% to 10%, and abdominal obesity increased from 48% to 61% over the 24-year period.
“Obesity is a leading public health concern, linked to higher risks for cardiovascular disease and premature death,” said Minhas. “Examining national trends in obesity can help determine which segments of the population may benefit the most from screening, how resources should be allocated for preventive efforts, and the potential impact of implementing public health initiatives to reduce the burden of obesity.” The findings underscore the growing epidemic of obesity, which is a major modifiable risk factor for conditions such as Type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease, stroke, and chronic kidney disease.
The research is believed to be the most contemporary evaluation of obesity trends among U.S. adults and youth. Among youth, the study noted a 30% increase in overall obesity, a 50% increase in severe obesity, and a three-fold increase in abdominal obesity when comparing 1999 to 2023. Significant disparities were also observed, with women having higher rates of severe obesity (13%) and abdominal obesity (70%) compared to men (7% and 51%, respectively). Non-Hispanic Black individuals consistently had the highest prevalence of obesity across all demographic groups studied.
These findings have major implications for cardiovascular disease and mortality. The first-ever guideline from the American Heart Association on the Prevention, Detection, Evaluation and Management of Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic disease, published in June 2026, states that obesity is the first stage of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome and emphasizes obesity management through diet and lifestyle modifications. Minhas stressed the need for increased availability and use of individual and population-level initiatives to target the rising epidemic, including better understanding of which patients could benefit most from weight loss medications like GLP-1 receptor agonists, bariatric surgery, and other treatments.
The study analyzed data from nearly 8,700 participants, including youth under 20 and adults 20 and older. Limitations include the use of BMI to define obesity, which does not account for body composition, and decreasing NHANES response rates over time, which may introduce nonresponse bias. Despite these limitations, the research provides crucial insights for guiding prevention efforts and resource allocation to combat the obesity epidemic.
